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Prepaid Wireless Market Update |
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By Lalitya Sastrawinata (lsastrawinata@atlantic-acm.com)
Background:
The prepaid wireless market enjoyed an explosive growth in late 2008 to 2009, mostly due to the economic slump which made prepaid plans highly attractive. However, a pricing war emerged, starting with Boost's heavily-marketed $50/mo. unlimited calls and texting. Prepaid providers fought with each other for share in this highly competitive market where brand loyalty is non-existent and customer churn is high. As we enter 2010, what is the outlook for the wireless prepaid market? Here's a look at the latest news in the industry:
Analysis:
- Boost Mobile: Last week, Boost Mobile announced that it will soon offer its popular $50 unlimited plan on the nationwide Sprint CDMA network. According to the president of Sprint's Prepaid Group, Dan Schulman, "Offering Boost Mobile's Monthly Unlimited plan on the Nationwide Sprint Network...significantly maximizes [its] growth potential in the prepaid arena". Along with its network announcement, Boost also is launching three CDMA handsets by the end of the month.
Boost's move to the more reliable, faster CDMA network is a good move, especially since other carriers already offer services on networks better than iDEN. The current Nextel iDEN nationwide network is full of problems ranging from call delays to undelivered text messages. Sprint's CDMA network promises a better quality of service and quality of plan. The three handsets include the Sanyo 3810, the Sanyo Incognito and its first smartphone, the BlackBerry Curve 8330 (the first two will operate under the $50 plan while the Blackberry will cost $60/month). The addition of these handsets will place Boost Mobile ahead of competitors such as MetroPCS and Leap in terms of handset portfolio.
Sprint has been enjoying strong prepaid growth in recent quarters, in contrast to its struggling postpaid unit. ATLANTIC-ACM believes these enhancements to its offerings will further increase Boost's value to its parent company.
- MetroPCS: MetroPCS had been experiencing dwindling subscriber numbers since the fourth quarter of 2008, reaching its lowest point in 3Q09, with only 66,157 net adds. Subscriber growth improved in 4Q09, reaching 317,000 customers, which was a large improvement but still was down from the year-ago period. However, earlier this year MetroPCS launched "Wireless for All," its family plan which includes four all-inclusive monthly service plans starting at $40 per month. Service plans include taxes and regulatory fees. MetroPCS also announced that it plans to add higher quality handsets later in 2010.
MetroPCS' move to a flat-rate billing format indicates that it is feeling the heat from increased competition (Boost also has flat-rate billing). "Wireless for All" is an attempt by MetroPCS to stay in the game by raising net adds and lowering churn. It promotes simplicity and transparency with no hidden costs.
- Net10: After discontinuing its $79.98 unlimited plan at the end of 2009, Net10 has reintroduced its unlimited calling plan at a reduced rate of $50/month. Net10 unlimited is a GSM service, which runs on the AT&T network. This plan is similar to others currently in the market, establishing the company as yet another contender in the prepaid market.
The Bottom Line:
With three prepaid providers already making headlines in the first few weeks of the new year, 2010 promised to be a year to watch. The prepaid market is highly susceptible to change and opportunities are bountiful as wireless data usage increases. For users, wireless purchases are no longer a matter of just seeing which carrier offers unlimited voice, text and data at the lowest price because the $50 unlimited plan has become standard fare. It's becoming a matter of handset choices, whether there are hidden fees or not, etc. Providers must make customers feel like they're getting the most for their money if they want to retain them, especially in the prepaid (read: loyalty-free) end of the market.
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